Cowen believes Bitcoin’s current structure still closely resembles previous four-year cycles, even though this cycle’s top lacked the euphoric blow-off phase many traders expected. According to him, markets can still experience severe downturns even when sentiment appears more apathetic than speculative.

The analyst also warned that Bitcoin may revisit lower price zones later this year before forming its next long-term bottom in late 2026. While many investors see Wall Street adoption as a game changer, Cowen says the burden of proof now sits with bulls claiming historical market behavior no longer applies.